Will Bitcoin fall to $70K as over $6.2B options expiry and ETF outflows hit markets?

Bitcoin price has fallen toward the $73,000 region after a wave of ETF outflows, derivatives pressure, and long liquidations triggered fresh panic across the crypto market.

According to crypto.news price data, Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped more than 4% over the past 24 hours and briefly touched the $72,800 area on May 28 after bulls failed to reclaim the $80,000 psychological resistance zone earlier this week. Ethereum, Solana, XRP, BNB, and Hyperliquid also posted sharp losses as total crypto market capitalization slid below $2.5 trillion.

The latest sell-off came as institutional investors rapidly reduced exposure through spot Bitcoin ETFs. Data from SoSoValue showed U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nearly $733 million in net outflows on Wednesday alone, the largest single-day withdrawal since February. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust led the decline with roughly $527.8 million in outflows, its second-largest daily bleed on record.

Over the past three weeks, spot Bitcoin ETFs have collectively lost more than $3 billion. The sustained withdrawals have removed a major source of spot demand that helped drive Bitcoin’s recovery earlier this year. At the same time, Coinbase Premium has turned negative, showing weakening buying activity from U.S.-based institutional and retail participants.

Macro pressure has also intensified after oil prices surged amid renewed Middle East tensions. Traders have reduced exposure to risk assets after reports surrounding potential disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz and uncertainty around U.S.-Iran negotiations.

Rising energy prices have complicated expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, especially as investors remain cautious ahead of upcoming U.S. inflation data.

Meanwhile, derivatives traders are now focused on one of the largest Bitcoin options expiries of the year. Data from Deribit shows over  $6.25 billion worth of Bitcoin options contracts, representing around 85,679 BTC contracts, are set to expire on Friday, May 29.

The largest concentration of call options sits near the $80,000 strike, while heavy put positioning has formed around the $75,000 region. Deribit’s max pain level currently stands at $75,000, the price where the highest number of contracts would expire worthless.

Options positioning has become increasingly problematic for bulls because Bitcoin is now trading well below the main concentration zones heading into settlement.

Analysts tracking derivatives flows noted that traders had spent much of the past month positioning for BTC to stabilize near higher expiry regions before the market abruptly reversed lower this week.

Analyst Ardi warned that Bitcoin’s move away from the major options positioning zones ahead of expiry could leave bullish traders trapped.

“When we see price moving away from the major areas of options positioning into expiry, it usually means one side of the market is about to get trapped badly….So right now, the bulls are the ones under pressure,” said Ardi

At the same time, liquidation activity has intensified across leveraged markets. CoinGlass data shows nearly $330 million in Bitcoin long positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, contributing to more than $870 million in total bullish liquidations across the broader crypto market.

Bitcoin loses key support as liquidation clusters build near $71K

The technical structure has also weakened considerably following Bitcoin’s rejection from the $82,000 region earlier this month. On the daily chart, BTC has now broken below several short-term moving averages while continuing to print lower highs and lower lows.

The MACD histogram has extended deeper into negative territory, while the MACD line itself remains below the signal line after confirming a bearish crossover earlier this week. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index has fallen toward the 35 level, placing momentum near oversold territory but without showing a confirmed bullish divergence yet.

A separate chart shared by trader Altcoin Sherpa in a May 28 X post, showed Bitcoin losing support across the 4-hour exponential moving averages after failing to hold above the $76,000 region. The analyst warned that a sustained breakdown from current levels could drag BTC toward the $71,000 area.

“BTC close here and I think we go to 71k or something around there. 4h EMAs lost the bullish trend but I still think we’re fine in the overall context,” noted the analyst.

Meanwhile, analysts at Crypto World said Bitcoin has continued showing weakness after facing rejection near the $78,000 region earlier this week. The analysts noted that $73,700 remains the immediate support level to watch on the 4-hour chart.

According to them, a successful defense of that zone could trigger a short relief rally due to a bullish RSI divergence forming at current levels. However, failure to hold above support may expose Bitcoin to a deeper decline toward the next major support area near $71,000.

CoinGlass liquidation heatmaps also show large liquidity clusters sitting between $71,000 and $72,000. Those zones often attract price action during periods of elevated leverage because market makers and large traders tend to target heavily concentrated liquidation pockets.

Below that region, thinner liquidity conditions extend toward the $70,000 psychological support level. A decisive breakdown beneath $71,000 could therefore accelerate volatility rapidly if another wave of long liquidations enters the market.

Despite the heavy selling pressure, some traders believe the current correction still remains within the structure of a larger bullish cycle. Bitcoin continues to trade above its March swing lows, and spot demand has not fully disappeared despite the ETF outflows.

ETF outflows and options expiry leave bulls defending $70K support

Institutional positioning, however, remains fragile ahead of Friday’s expiry event. Market makers often hedge aggressively near large options settlements, especially when spot price moves sharply away from major strike concentrations. With Bitcoin trading several thousand dollars below the dominant $80,000 call wall, hedging flows may continue adding pressure into settlement.

Order book data also shows buy-side liquidity concentrated primarily between $72,000 and $74,000. If those bids weaken during U.S. trading hours, traders may begin targeting the $70,000 support floor directly.

Funding conditions across derivatives exchanges have also deteriorated. Several perpetual futures markets briefly flipped negative after the latest sell-off, showing traders are increasingly positioning for further downside rather than expecting a quick rebound.

Meanwhile, open interest has started declining alongside price, a sign that leveraged positions are being forcefully closed rather than rotated into fresh longs. Combined with negative Coinbase Premium readings and continued ETF withdrawals, the setup has left bulls with limited short-term catalysts ahead of expiry.

For now, traders remain focused on whether Bitcoin can defend the $72,000-$70,000 support range through Friday’s settlement window. Failure to hold that region could expose BTC to a deeper correction toward the mid-$60,000 area, while a recovery back above $75,000 may ease immediate pressure and reduce the risk of another liquidation cascade.