Here’s Why Bitcoin (BTC) Could Still Face Its Biggest Crash Ahead: Analyst

This analyst thinks that now may not be the time to turn bullish or buy Bitcoin.

Bitcoin (BTC) has remained under pressure over the past week, falling from around $77,000 to approximately $73,140. The crypto asset experienced several sharp declines during the period, including a notable drop near $72,600 on May 28.

The latest price action suggests that the bear market remains unfinished and that deeper losses may lie ahead before recovery begins.

‘Stage 5 Is Coming’

In his latest weekly report, Doctor Profit said the market’s broader structure has not changed and that Bitcoin is still progressing through the later stages of a bear market. According to the analyst, this stage is characterized by exhaustion, sideways trading, and growing frustration among market participants.

He said these conditions are already evident in Bitcoin’s recent price action and believes they signal the market is approaching a transition to Stage 5, which he identifies as the true capitulation phase of the cycle.

Doctor Profit expects Stage 5 to begin once Bitcoin falls below $60,000. A break of that level is expected to accelerate panic across the market and trigger a more severe downturn. He added that the next phase could see forced selling by long-term holders, the collapse of a major exchange or a large market participant, or other black swan-type events that further weaken investor confidence. The analyst argued that bear markets rarely unfold in a straight line and instead tend to be lengthy, exhausting, and destructive for participants, which is why he believes many investors continue to underestimate the downside risks.

Despite Bitcoin’s decline from its highs, Doctor Profit does not believe the market has reached its final bottom. He continues to predict that Bitcoin will eventually fall into the $40,000-$50,000 region before the bear market concludes. Based on his calculations, he sees September to October 2026 as the most likely period for that bottom to form.

The analyst also pointed to several upcoming US economic data releases, such as ISM Manufacturing PMI, ADP employment figures, and nonfarm payrolls, as important events for financial markets. He explained that any signs of weakness in employment data combined with persistent inflation would place the Federal Reserve in a difficult position.

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Looking ahead to the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh, the analyst said markets appear to be pricing in a dovish policy stance, but he remains skeptical that such an outcome will materialize.

Derivatives Market Still Struggles

Another factor supporting a similar outlook is the current state of the Bitcoin derivatives market. According to another analyst, Darkfost, the sector has yet to fully recover from the massive liquidation event on October 10, when nearly 71,000 BTC were wiped from open interest across major exchanges within hours. While activity has improved since then, total open interest across the Bitcoin derivatives market, excluding CME, remains below pre-liquidation levels, with roughly 351,000 BTC currently outstanding, down from nearly 375,000 BTC before the event.

However, Binance has bucked the trend, increasing both its open interest and market share since October. Such a trend could potentially indicate that trading activity has become increasingly concentrated on the exchange as investors gravitate toward deeper liquidity and market depth.