Analyst Says Waiting for Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle Bottom Could Be a Costly Mistake

Bitcoin could surprise investors expecting another four-year cycle, as institutional developments potentially reshape the market’s usual historical pattern this year.

Bitcoin investors waiting for a traditional four-year cycle bottom in September or October could be caught on the wrong side of the market, according to analyst Doctor Profit.

While the four-year cycle worked “almost perfectly” at the top, now the analyst believes the opposite is happening.

October Catalysts

In his latest post on X, Doctor Profit said he does not see Bitcoin falling below $50,000, although he identified the area around $54,000 as a major liquidity zone that remains important. “There is an extreme amount of liquidity around $54,000, and that cannot be ignored,” he said, while estimating that a move from current levels to that price would represent roughly 15% downside.

Given that risk-reward profile, he argued that it makes sense to start accumulating now, but “step by step, not all in.” The analyst also noted that he does not expect the next major rally to begin immediately.

Doctor Profit further explained that the market could front-run the widely anticipated cycle bottom while pointing to several crucial developments that could strengthen sentiment before then. For instance, the planned rollout of tokenized stocks through infrastructure involving major financial institutions, including BlackRock, the New York Stock Exchange, the S&P, Nasdaq, and the DTCC, which he said is expected to move forward in October after tokenization platforms were effectively tested through earlier market activity.

Doctor Profit cited rumors that the CLARITY Act could pass in August as another potential catalyst, and added that regulatory clarity would make it easier for institutions to enter the crypto market and accelerate tokenization. However, prediction market traders have since become less optimistic about the bill’s prospects after the implied odds of its passage declined in recent days.

ETFs Stay Positive

After suffering eight straight weeks of heavy outflows, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued their recovery with another week of net inflows. According to data compiled by SoSoValue, the funds have attracted more than $200 million so far in July, continuing the positive trend that began in the middle of the month.