BTC Could Hit Fresh Summer Highs Within Weeks if $73K Holds: Analyst

However, a failure to defend the current support level may open the door to a deeper correction toward $61,000.

Bitcoin (BTC) is holding above a support zone that one analyst says could either push it to new summer highs or lead it toward $61,000.

According to them, the outcome depends on whether buyers can defend that level over the coming days.

Why Everyone Needs to Watch the $73K Support Zone

On June 1, crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe laid out a clear conditional case for BTC, saying that if the $73,000 area holds, and history repeats itself, then we could see two strong weeks of upward momentum that could potentially push the OG crypto coin to new highs this summer.

He also suggested that there may be a broader altcoin rally alongside the Bitcoin surge.

“It’s a crucial support zone for Bitcoin, which needs to hold in order to prevent a test at $61,000 to happen,” wrote van de Poppe. “If it does = new highs in the Summer = great altcoin runs during the Summer.”

That’s a fairly wide range of outcomes for an asset that, at the time of writing, was trading less than 100 bucks above $73,000, having dipped by about 6.5% in the last 30 days and also being down roughly 30% from where it was one year ago.

Its price has been stuck within a narrow band for the better part of the past week, with resistance sitting around $74,200 and support at about $72,700, according to market watcher Daan Crypto Trades, who posted earlier today that these are the levels to watch in the short term.

The macro backdrop hasn’t been helping either, with spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing persistent outflows since mid-May, losing more than $2.4 billion in that entire month, including a single-day outflow of $733 million on May 27. Researchers at XWIN Japan have pointed out that this issue is a core problem, as they argue that BTC, unlike equities, has no earnings to anchor its price and is therefore more exposed when capital rotation is happening elsewhere.

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May’s closing candle is also worth noting, with data shared by analyst AbramChart showing the month closing with a net buying delta of just 0.08%, as well as aggressive selling from large wallets holding positions worth between $1 million and $5 million.

Per the chartist, while buying outpaced selling by around $544 million last month, that number pales in comparison to April’s net buying of $11 billion and even the $4 billion registered in March. In his assessment, when all is said and done, the May numbers could end up retesting March’s point of control, which stood at $70,600.

A Record Long Correction, and What Seasonal History Says

Another thing noted about Bitcoin at the start of this new month is that it is now entering the longest correction of this entire market cycle. According to pseudonymous analyst Darkfost, the cryptocurrency is set to surpass the 237-day correction that occurred in 2024, and that’s a sobering context, even if it falls short of the brutal drawdowns seen in past bear markets, where it took 849 days to reach a new all-time high in 2023, or the 1,180 days that were required to reach a peak back in 2015.

There is also a seasonal dimension to things, as described by crypto observer Markus Thielen, who pointed out that in the past decade, June has delivered average returns of just 0.7% for BTC, making it one of the weakest months for the asset. And with Bitcoin already down 16% year-to-date, the situation does not make for comfortable reading for bulls.

However, Thielen did raise the possibility of seasonal patterns shifting, considering that May, which is normally seen as a strong month, failed to deliver this year, after Bitcoin’s value declined by 3.4%, per data from CoinGlass. In the analyst’s opinion, that divergence from historical norms could mean that some of the expected weakness has already been priced in.