## Market Snapshot The market on the fall of the Iranian regime before 2027 shows a 2.8% YES probability, down from 4% over the past 24 hours. Recent news appears to have had a moderate influence on this market. ## Key Takeaways – The news that Iran is reviewing a US peace proposal suggests a
Bitcoin price is trading above $80,000, reaching a three-month high as Asian equity markets push toward record levels and risk appetite returns across global prediction markets. The $80,000 level marks a structural resistance zone that defined Bitcoin’s November 2025 lows and has acted as a ceiling through months of consolidation. Retail investors are flooding back
Every time institutional buying has hit 500% of daily miner output before, BTC averaged 24% gains over the following month. Institutions are buying Bitcoin (BTC) at more than five times the rate miners are producing it, and according to Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards, that gap has historically come right before huge price gains.
Coinbase has urged U.S. derivatives regulators to keep prediction markets under existing rules, filing a formal response as legal pressure builds around event-based contracts. Summary Coinbase has submitted a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission arguing that prediction markets fall within existing regulatory authority. Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad said event-based contracts resemble traditional
## Market Snapshot The market for a potential US invasion of Iran before 2027 currently shows heightened interest, with the threat of a ceasefire breach potentially increasing the likelihood of a US military response. The odds for Donald Trump announcing a blockade lift of the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, have decreased significantly,
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has received more than 1,500 public responses on its proposed rule for prediction market event contracts. Summary CFTC has received more than 1,500 public comments on its prediction markets rule, with firms backing its authority while state regulators push back. Kalshi, Polymarket, and Andreessen Horowitz supported the CFTC, urging
## Market Snapshot The “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by April 30, 2026” market reflects a low probability of a YES outcome due to ongoing military actions, with recent operations against Hezbollah decreasing implied odds. The market for a potential withdrawal by June 30, 2026, is priced at 9.5% YES, while the May 31, 2026, market
Based on historical data, rising futures demand alongside contracting spot demand is associated with unsustained price gains during bear seasons. April ended with bitcoin (BTC) posting a 12% increase – the biggest such gain in a year. Although the asset had corrected slightly to $75,000 by the last day of the month, market participants
Warren Buffett used the 2026 Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting to warn investors about rising speculation across markets. Summary Buffett said investors are showing a stronger gambling mood across volatile markets and short-term trades. He criticized one-day options, calling them gambling rather than investing based on business value. Greg Abel led Berkshire’s meeting as Buffett’s warning
## Market Snapshot UAE and Qatar diplomatic relations market is relevant, with potential increases in YES outcomes, indicating a likelihood of severed ties. Iran airspace closure markets show moderate YES pricing, suggesting possible regional escalation. Reza Pahlavi’s entry into Iran market remains unchanged and irrelevant. ## Key Takeaways – The public acknowledgment of the UAE-Israel