Netanyahu adviser Golan defects to Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party

Ofer Golan, a key Netanyahu adviser, has shifted allegiance to Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party, with the market on Netanyahu’s departure by June 30 now at 5.5% YES, down from 6% a day ago.

Market reaction

Golan’s defection to Ben-Gvir’s camp could destabilize Netanyahu’s coalition by strengthening a rival right-wing faction from within. The June 30 market reflects traders adjusting positions accordingly. The April 30 market sits at 0.1% YES, indicating traders see no realistic path to a Netanyahu exit within weeks.

Why it matters

The term structure shows a 5-point gap between the April and June contracts, which points to trader expectations of a catalyst before summer. The June market has $22,738 in daily face value and $1,423 in actual trading, with a $9,495 cost to shift odds by 5 points — moderate liquidity that means individual trades can still move the price.

What to watch

Buying YES at 5.5¢ offers a 18x return if Netanyahu steps down by June 30. That bet depends on whether Ben-Gvir can siphon enough Likud support to break the coalition. Watch for moves by Smotrich or Ben-Gvir that further erode Netanyahu’s base. Statements from President Herzog also matter, particularly any push for a plea deal or other legal maneuvers that could accelerate a departure.

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