US intercepts Iranian ship carrying medical supplies for dialysis patients

Iran’s Red Crescent says a ship intercepted by the US was carrying supplies for kidney dialysis patients. The likelihood of 80 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 sits at 4% YES, down from 10% yesterday.

Market reaction

With 7 days left until April 30, the odds that 80 ships will transit the Strait on a single day are flat across multiple sub-markets. Each market holds at 4% YES, showing traders remain skeptical about rapid de-escalation.

Why it matters

The market for whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May also faces pressure. Current odds are unavailable due to zero trading volume, but the blockade’s persistence likely weighs on any potential reversal. The Red Crescent’s statement about seized medical supplies suggests tensions are unlikely to ease soon.

What to watch

Daily trading volume in the “80 ships” market is just $794 in USDC. It takes only $940 to move the odds five points, meaning the market is thin and vulnerable to swings from relatively small trades. Traders should weigh current odds against that illiquidity.

The seizure of medical supplies signals continued tension with no obvious off-ramp. Buying YES at 4¢ pays $1 if 80 ships transit by April 30, a 25x return. That bet requires believing in a diplomatic breakthrough within the next week. Watch for statements from CENTCOM and the IRGC, and any diplomatic moves from potential mediators like Oman. Changes in operational language or new negotiations would be the first signs of a shift.

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