What Dates Matter, and What Are Myths

Bitcoin.com News analyzed almost nine years of data, from January 2018 to October 2026. For example, U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) events and economic data releases moved the bitcoin price about two to three times as much as normal in the first 30 minutes. In general, these events affect BTC for one to three hours mostly, then the market calms down, and, on a daily timeframe, they have not made bitcoin reliably more volatile. The exception was the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) in 2022, when inflation and interest rates were the market’s main concerns: CPI days that year were 79% more volatile than other weekdays.

Non-events

Meanwhile, as headlines warn about upcoming bitcoin options expiries, the data shows that expiry Fridays were not more volatile than other Fridays. What’s more, since U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) launched in January 2024, expiry Fridays have been about a quarter less volatile than other Fridays. Even right after options settle at 8 a.m. UTC, bitcoin moves about as much as it does on a normal day. For example, the record $28.5 billion Deribit expiry on Dec. 26, 2025, involving bitcoin and ether combined, moved BTC just 0.31% in the next 30 minutes.

Also, decisions by the European Central Bank (ECB) had a mild impact in the first 30 minutes, but the effect was not statistically significant. Bank of Japan (BOJ) decisions showed no measurable impact, although the BOJ has no fixed release time.

What’s more, U.S. tax deadlines showed a similar pattern as well: they did not make bitcoin more volatile either. However, in years following big gains, bitcoin tended to weaken in the month before the annual tax deadline.

Most Volatile Events on Bitcoin’s Calendar

Bitcoin.com News compared bitcoin’s minute-by-minute and daily price movements around scheduled events with those on ordinary days at the same weekday and time. The analysis covers January 2018 to October 2026 and examines the hour before each event, the first 30 minutes and first hours afterward, the rest of the day, and the following 24 hours.

Here’s what we found: over the past eight years, bitcoin reacted most strongly in the first 30 minutes after speeches by Fed chairs at Jackson Hole conferences, with the bitcoin price moving about three times as much as normal. Fed press conferences came second, at 2.6 times normal, followed by jobs reports (2.2 times), Fed rate decision statements (2.0 times), and CPI reports (1.9 times).

Jackson Hole speeches, which may signal changes in the Fed’s monetary policy, also produced the highest daily volatility among the events analyzed, at 2.5 times normal.

After the first hours, trading returned to about normal for every event, while the 24-hour price change was no larger than usual, except the above mentioned Jackson Hole speeches. Also, as mentioned above, CPI announcements generated stronger volatility in 2022, when the Fed was pursuing its most aggressive monetary tightening campaign to fight record-high inflation. Back then, the market reacted much more strongly to Fed statements, too — about seven times normal in the first 30 minutes.

Coin Metrics, analyzing data from January 2025 to September 2026, also found that jobs reports moved bitcoin about twice as much as a typical 30-minute window, while core CPI moved it about 1.8 times as much. Meanwhile, Coin Metrics found that Fed decisions stayed “close to baseline” in terms of bitcoin volatility. A longer data set shows that Fed statements affected bitcoin about as much as economic data releases, while the Fed chair’s press conference had an even greater impact.

Bitcoin Volatility Calendar

In other words, bitcoin typically moves about 0.2% in a half-hour period. In the first 30 minutes after a Jackson Hole speech, it moves about 0.7%; after a Fed press conference, about 0.5%. Jobs reports, CPI, Fed statements, ECB decisions, and Fed minutes fall between 0.45% and 0.23%. Options expiries, at 0.22%, are in line with a normal half-hour period.

Moreover, after the first hours, trading returns to normal. By the next day, the bitcoin price is usually no farther from where it started than it would be on an ordinary day.

Therefore, if you want to catch these short-term moves, you can mark the following dates on your calendar.

The Fed Calendar: Decisions, Press Conferences and Minutes

The Fed holds eight regularly scheduled policy meetings a year and releases a statement at 2 p.m. EDT. However, in October 2026, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh said that, in 2027, one of the meetings will not be dedicated to rates or policy statements.

Usually, the chair holds a press conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes are published three weeks later. Meanwhile, the date of the Jackson Hole conference has not yet been announced, but it usually takes place in late August.

Data Releases: CPI and Jobs

Over the next 12 months, U.S. CPI and jobs reports are scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. EDT on the following dates.

Effects of U.S. Tax Deadlines

Tax deadlines are another date traders watch. The concern is selling pressure in the weeks beforehand: investors may sell BTC to raise cash for a tax bill on the previous year’s gains, or sell at a loss before Dec. 31 to reduce their tax liability.

The data shows that personal and corporate tax deadlines did not make bitcoin more volatile in any statistically reliable way.

However, the data suggests that BTC tends to fall in the month before the April 15 personal tax deadline following a strong year, as bitcoin holders may take profits. In five of the six years following gains of more than 50%, bitcoin usually fell slightly in the 30 days before the annual tax deadline. After the three weaker years, it rose.

What It All Means for You

If you treat bitcoin (BTC) as an investable asset, these findings are mainly relevant if you’re a short-term trader looking to buy or sell BTC over short timeframes and profit from quick price fluctuations. Otherwise, unless something truly extraordinary and unexpected happens during one of these scheduled events, triggering substantial liquidations of long or short positions, these relatively insignificant moves are unlikely to matter much over a longer time horizon if you expect bitcoin to make substantial gains over the long term.

Short-term volatility in the first few minutes is also likely driven by algorithmic trading, as large institutions race to position themselves using automated programs, affecting the market along the way.

To summarize, adjust your investment calendar according to your bitcoin investment thesis. If you’re a long-term bitcoin investor with sound risk management, don’t stress over every scheduled event or “unscheduled surprise” that moves the market. Also, the next time someone warns you about the dangers of expiring options, send them this article.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh used his debut press conference on June 17 to strip away decades of central bank…